Well I don’t pretend to be an expert in politics, but I treat it like when I play chess, I look at all the possible reasons why somebody has made their move. Once his series of moves is done, his bluffs work or fail, then you can evaluate what he did and see why he made a particular move.
It’s just too much of a coincidence that a steadily closing vice around Syria, Iran and Hezbullah was kicked off by the assassination of Hariri; a full scale, “Unexpected” war takes place a year later, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions all provoke outcry while the situation in Iraq worsens. Now we see the American’s sitting down with the Syrians and Iranians after going through yes, no, yes no thinking they can play a final card. Israel might be tempted to do something stupid, but right now it is too busy licking it’s wounds.
Incidentally, how come things in Lebanon would quieten down only once Iran and Saudi Arabia meet calmly and “discuss” things over. Lebanon was and remains somebody else’s battlefield unfortunately. However, this was one hell of a chess player who planned all this, and though it was a damn big gamble, it seems other people in the Middle East play chess too.
Chess, Middle East style – by Wassim