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Has Assad lost ‘day-to-day control’ of Syria?

June 8th, 2012 · 2 Comments · Politics

Something very interesting caught my eye in the sidebar of this BBC story. BBC Middle East Bureau Chief Paul Danahar, who’s in Damascus, made the following claim:

There is a sense in Damascus shared by many diplomats, international officials and those opposed to President Assad that his regime may no longer have complete and direct day-to-day command and control of some of the militia groups being blamed for massacring civilians.

Let’s, for a second, assume this is true (always a difficult thing in the current circumstances where rumour/speculation trumps fact). If it is, that means the regime is well and truly crumbling. It means the armed forces’ chain of command (at least the paramilitary side) is collapsing. And it means the FSA should be able to win more converts, and may even gain the upper hand with a critical mass of defectors.

On the other hand, if Assad really isn’t directing some of these massacres, and the boys in white trainers are doing it on their own initiative…then, well, we know what that means. It’s every man for himself. We really have entered hell.

I’d still be wary of jumping to this conclusion. For months we heard claims that it wasn’t Assad ordering the violence, but his evil henchmen (notably his brother, Maher). The Assad emails blew that theory apart.

But the difference here is the credibility of these reports. Danahar’s sources are “diplomats, international officials and those opposed to President Assad.”

Opposition activists claiming that it’s a free-for-all? Really?

Oh, and one last point. Danahar’s analysis at the side of that BBC story has now been replaced by a Jim Muir report (he’s in Beirut, not Damascus) on the same page.

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2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 spybuzz // Jul 20, 2012 at 12.56 am

    It’s time for people of Syria to live in peace and justice. people of Syria don”t forget french younsters are behind you

    http://spybuzz.fr/la-vie-par-defaut/

  • 2 News // Jul 24, 2012 at 4.29 pm

    WRONG…just come and see the truth on ground….
    The so called freedom islamist fighters are near their total collapse….

    No one can play such games in Syria, unless looking to go straight down to hell.

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